Mobilesquared forecasts an additional $4.33 billion will be spent on A2P messaging globally in 2016 compared to the previous year. We project the market to be worth $17.21 billion by the end of the year, up from $12.88 billion. That’s year-on-year growth of 33%. That’s huge.
Based on our numbers, A2P messaging globally is a sizeable massive market, but our projections are 75% lower than published market revenues (and forecasts) quoted by the A2P industry. Everyone operating within the A2P messaging ecosystem would welcome the $60 billion revenues, but our extensive research, based on in-depth interviews with major players and mobile operators within the A2P ecosystem, suggests otherwise.
For example, if the market is worth $60 billion and there are 2 trillion A2P messages sent per annum, that would create an average A2P message rate of $0.03 – for both white and grey traffic.
There are also views that claim the $60 billion only represents white route traffic. White route traffic accounts for one-third of total A2P traffic. In which case, the average A2P message rate (for white route traffic only) would be $0.09.
These A2P per-SMS values are extremely high.
In 2015, we believe a total of 1.38 trillion A2P messages (grey and white) were sent at an average cost of $0.009. On average, 3.78 billion messages sent per day to 52% of total global mobile subscriptions. By 2020, the total global A2P messages sent will have reached 3.4 trillion. Significantly, an average of 9.31 billion messages will be sent per day, effectively reaching 103% of total global mobile subscriptions.
In effect, by 2020 every global mobile subscription will receive an average of 1 A2P message per day. Between 2015 and 2020, the average amount of messages received per subscription will almost double. When broken down by month, the average A2P messages per subscription will be 16 in 2016, rising to 17.7 in 2016, and will reach 31.9 by 2020.
So, although our starting point for the forecast period is considerably lower than numbers being quoted, we project strong growth between now and 2020; a compound annual growth of 35.5%.
We are not only resetting the value of the A2P messaging marketplace, we’re projecting massive growth. The A2P messaging revolution is coming!
Mobilesquared is delighted to have teamed up with AdaptiveMobile and the Mobile Ecosystem Forum to run a roundtable on the future of A2P messaging taking place in London, 15th September 2016. Key findings and analysis from the roundtable will be available on our site from 20th September.
For more information on our “Global A2P messaging forecasts by country, 2015-2020: Mobile operators key to unlocking multi-billion dollar SMS ecosystem” report, visit here.