Aggregators would also see profits fall.

In July 2016 Mobilesquared published its first Databook on the global A2P SMS messaging opportunity, where our extensive market research allowed us to confidently undercut all of the existing market valuations and forecasts for the enterprise messaging space.

Having assisted the A2P SMS industry in achieving greater clarity based on the size and opportunity of the marketplace over the last 18 months (up to January 2018), the latest data and forecasts published by Mobilesquared reveals a total of US$5.76 billion in potential revenues will be lost to grey-route traffic this year.

More importantly, however, is the impact grey-to-white revenue conversion would have on the overall value chain. Mobile operators control the lion’s share of revenue and their grip is set to tighten as more and more networks are locked down with SMS firewalls in the future.

If all grey traffic was to be priced at white-route levels then mobile operators would see annual revenues increase from US$13.72 billion to US$19.63 billion this year, while aggregators would not only see their market share shrink, but actual revenues would decrease as well from US$3.29 billion to US$3.15 billion.

The potential drop in aggregator revenues is due to the fact that although grey route messages are charged at a fraction of the cost of white route, there is significant volume in grey which is wholly attributable to the aggregators. With the move from grey to white route, aggregators would only be able to trade on the margins between authorised wholesale and termination rates charged by the mobile operators – further pressurising their side of the supply chain.

Change in A2P SMS revenues 2018 (if grey-route messaging charged at white-route pricing)

Global A2P SMS messaging forecasts by country, 2017-2022 contains the most comprehensive coverage of the global A2P SMS market, including:

  • Grey & white route traffic by region, country, mobile operator & subscription (including domestic/ international, enterprise sector & message type)
  • Grey & white route revenues by region, country, mobile operator, total aggregators & subscription (including potential & lost revenues)
  • All with two impact models from RCS adoption

The Databook is now available to buy here, or contact info@mobilesquared.co.uk / +44 (0) 1344 747 113 for more information.