GLOBAL WHATSAPP BUSINESS MESSAGING FORECASTS BY COUNTRY 2018-2024

GLOBAL WHATSAPP BUSINESS MESSAGING FORECASTS BY COUNTRY 2018-2024

Published April 2020 (updated biannually)

The Global WhatsApp Business Messaging Forecasts by Country 2018-2024, are the world’s first projections on WhatsApp’s big push into the business messaging arena. But this is also the first report to split out WhatsApp’s 2 billion users by nearly 200 markets (view the full list of markets here), and then projected this forward to 2024.

The WhatsApp user base has formed the basis of our WhatsApp Business messaging forecasts, which we have split out by two use cases :

  • WhatsApp for Business app – predominantly micro and small businesses which have downloaded the app.
  • WhatsApp Business API – predominantly medium and large enterprises which are using APIs provided by WhatsApp Business partners.

We have then split out these use cases by engagement type, where applicable (A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages)

And then applied spend, where applicable (split out by value chain (aggregator / aggregator message rate / aggregator fee / WhatsApp message fee / total)

WhatsApp Business is viewed as the biggest threat to mobile operator controlled business messaging ecosystem. This Databook provides an incredibly detailed view of the traffic and spend generated by WhatsApp Business.

To summarise, the Databook covers WhatsApp users by market WhatsApp Business opt-in adoption rates, inbound and outbound traffic, conversations, as well as spend.

This Databook is available as a global market report + data file covering 200 markets priced at £3,495.00 (+ VAT), or as a regional market report + data file covering four regions invidually (Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Middle East & Africa) priced at £1,495.00 (+ VAT) per region.

Can WhatsApp have the same impact on business messaging as it has on consumer messaging? As the world’s largest OTT messaging platform with over 2 billion users, WhatsApp is viewed by brands and businesses as the ideal channel to communicate with their customers. The issue is that each and every WhatsApp user has to opt-in to start any type of communication with any company.

Based on extensive research of the WhatsApp Business messaging ecosystem, Mobilesquared has created a Databook looking at the WhatsApp Business opportunity, which will inevitably have an impact on SMS and RCS.

Business Messaging is the one area truly dominated by the mobile operators within the messaging ecosystem, with between 80-90% of all spend staying with them. Is that about to all change with WhatsApp Business?

This Databook is accompanied by a PDF report, which includes analysis of the global data, highlights market trends and key drivers, and delivers an overview of the WhatsApp Business value chain

This Databook is accompanied by a PDF report, which includes analysis of the global data, highlights market trends and key drivers, and delivers an overview of the WhatsApp Business value chain.

  • Approximately 1.96 billion people using WhatsApp at the end of 2019, forecast to reach X.X billion at the end of 2024.
  • WhatsApp Business App launched in January, 2018, and claimed approximately 5.25 million micro and small companies actively using as of end 2019, forecast to rise to X.X million end 2024.
  • WhatsApp Business API launched in August, 2018, and claimed 992 medium and large companies actively using as of end 2019, forecast to rise to XXXXX end 2024.
  • Defined split in usage by the App and the API… primarily A2P XXXXXX and XXXXXXXXX broadcasts on the App, and P2A XXXXXXX via the API.
  • Broadcast messages accounted for XX% of the total of XXX billion messages sent by over the App in 2019, while XXXXXXXX messages accounted for XX% of the total of XXX billion messages sent via the API.
  • API spend of US$XXXX million in 2019, generating US$XXXX million in template message fees for WhatsApp and a total of US$26.29 million for WhatsApp Business partners… rising to US$XXXX billion in 2024, generating US$XXXXX billion in template

Key findings

Introduction

Enterprise data

WhatsApp users

WhatsApp business messaging traffic

WhatsApp Business messaging pricing

Development of WhatsApp Business messaging

WhatsApp Business App

WhatsApp Business API

WhatsApp Business App forecasts

WhatsApp Business API forecasts

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – Africa

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – Asia

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – Caribbean

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – East Europe

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – Latin America

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – Middle East

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – North America

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – Oceania

WhatsApp Business forecasts by region – West Europe

Methodology

About Mobilesquared

  • WhatsApp users by region / country
  • WhatsApp users as percentage of total smartphones by region / country
  • WhatsApp Business App users
  • WhatsApp Business App engagement by A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages
  • WhatsApp Business App average engagement by users by A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages
  • WhatsApp Business App average engagement by brand by A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages
  • WhatsApp Business API users
  • WhatsApp Business API engagement by A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages
  • WhatsApp Business API average engagement by users by A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages
  • WhatsApp Business API average engagement by brand by A2P broadcast messages / P2A chat messages / P2A chats / total messages
  • WhatsApp Business API spend by value chain (aggregator / aggregator message rate / aggregator fee / WhatsApp message fee / total) and by engagement (A2P template messages / P2A chat messages / per brand / total)
  • WhatsApp Business API average spend per user by value chain (aggregator / aggregator message rate / aggregator fee / WhatsApp message fee / total) and by engagement (A2P template messages / P2A chat messages / per brand / total)
  • WhatsApp Business API average spend per brand by value chain (aggregator / aggregator message rate / aggregator fee / WhatsApp message fee / total) and by engagement (A2P template messages / P2A chat messages / per brand / total)
  • Methodology

To be included in October update

  • WhatsApp Business users by region / country
  • WhatsApp Business users as percentage of total smartphones by region / country

Data and forecasts contained in this report are based on the two use cases of WhatsApp for Business.

  • The first is predominantly micro and small businesses which have downloaded and are using the WhatsApp for Business App.
  • The second is based on predominantly medium and large enterprises which are using APIs provided by WhatsApp Business partners.

Business data

Mobilesquared researched and found business-size information for 127 of the 195 countries covered by WhatsApp in this report – split between micro (1-9), small (10-49), medium (50-249) and large (>250).

Where business-size information was unavailable, we estimated the total number of businesses based on regional averages per head of population and then split by the average percentages for micro, small, medium and large businesses.

The total number of businesses which have downloaded and are using the WhatsApp for Business App is based on various public announcements dating back to January 2018.

By mid-2019, around 8 million small businesses were believed to have downloaded the WhatsApp for Business app and, as of January 25th 2020, Google Play stated that the app had been downloaded over 100 million times.

However, it was also announced that only 3 million businesses were actually using the app as of August 2018, rising to 5 million at the end of 2018. When we asked WhatsApp for an update on the number of businesses actually using the app as of end-2019, we were told “over 5 million”.

Our forecasts have, therefore, assumed relatively low growth in the number of businesses using the WhatsApp for Business app, although this can be revised up in future given the current 95% under-utilisation rate.

The total number of businesses which are using WhatsApp Partner APIs is based on a survey of the 50+ Partners over the first quarter of 2020.

By the end of 2019, we estimate less than 1,000 companies had engaged with partners, representing just 0.05% of the available medium and large enterprises worldwide.

We have also assumed that this number will rise to 2.5% of the available medium and large enterprises by the end of 2024, representing a total of almost 55,000 organisations.

Mobilesquared averaged the number of businesses using the WhatsApp for Business app and WhatsApp Partner API in each country weighted against the relevant WhatsApp user penetration per market.

WhatsApp users

Total WhatsApp user numbers, and total WhatsApp user forecasts, are based on various public announcements dating back to December 2013 – most recently crossing 1.5 billion in February 2018, and 2 billion in February 2020.

Historical WhatsApp users were calculated for each year-end and benchmarked against total smartphone penetration to assess actual, and smartphone-penetration, growth trends.

WhatsApp user and penetration numbers were then researched and collated for the individual countries and regions contained in our forecasts.

Where country information was not available, estimates were benchmarked against regional WhatsApp smartphone penetration.

Country and regional users were then aligned with the global total, and forecast throughout the period based on actual user, and smartphone-penetration, growth trends.

WhatsApp conversations and traffic

Mobilesquared applied enterprise survey data conducted during xxxx 2019, to ascertain the average size of the customer database for micro, small, medium and large enterprises.

We also applied consumer survey data conducted during xxx 2019, to ascertain the average number of times a consumer would message a brand each year.

Taken together, the enterprise and consumer survey data together formed the basis of calculations for all P2A engagement, as well as A2P broadcasts sent by WhatsApp for Business app users, and A2P templates sent by Partner API users.

We have assumed an average of six messages will be exchanged in P2A-driven conversations – three each from consumer and enterprise.

We have assumed A2P broadcasts sent by WhatsApp for Business app users average one per month.

Our survey of the 50+ WhatsApp Partners indicated that approximately 10% of total API traffic constituted A2P templates at the end of 2019.

We have assumed this will rise to around 12.5% by the end of the forecast period due to the apparent interest from enterprise in sending updates and reminders verified by WhatsApp.

WhatsApp pricing

Currently, all business messaging via the WhatsApp for Business app is free. Furthermore, WhatsApp does not charge for messages sent via APIs as part of a P2A-driven conversation, only for A2P template messages sent by enterprise.

However, the WhatsApp Partners all appear to have different pricing strategies and price points for both P2A and A2P messaging.

Some WhatsApp Partners charge a flat monthly admin fee, some do not. Some include a P2A message volume within the fee, some do not. Some charge per user, some per message, and most seem to charge differing message rates – although their rates apply to both P2A conversations and A2P templates.

Mobilesquared has modelled the following:-

  • An average fee of US$300 per brand per month – payable to the WhatsApp Partner
  • An average rate of US$0.005 per A2P message sent by enterprise – payable to the WhatsApp Partner
  • The advertised WhatsApp template fee per country – payable to WhatsApp
  • An average rate of US$0.005 per template message sent by enterprise – payable to the WhatsApp Partner.

We would love to chat

Call us today on 01182 149 777  or info@mobilesquared.co.uk